The Fiscal and Monetary History of Latin America: The case of Uruguay (1960-2014)

44 visualizacións 25 de maio de 2018

In this paper, we analyze the fiscal and monetary history of Uruguay between 1960 and 2014. The aim is to
explore the links between unfavorable fiscal and monetary policies and macroeconomic instability. We use
the conceptual framework from Kehoe, Nicolini and Sargent (2013), which comprises a budget-constraint
accounting exercise and models of balance-of-payment crisis and public-debt crisis. Chronic inflation in the
1960s was associated with sustained fiscal deficits. Since the 1990s, the opening of the economy, the pricestabilization
plans and the more restrictive institutional framework of the Central Bank resulted in less
inflationary financing of fiscal deficits. Although inflation significantly declined in 1960-2014, the inflation
tax remained an important source to finance obligations. Public-debt dollarization increased the
vulnerability of the public sector but primary fiscal surpluses and public-debt de-dollarization after the 2002
crisis reduced such vulnerability. We conclude that, in the last three decades, governments have slowly
understood the importance of fiscal constraints to guarantee nominal stability

Gabriel Oddone
FERRERE / Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE), Montevideo

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